“With 95% of total supply soon to be in circulation, the market may be shifting from an era of abundance to one defined by scarcity,” wrote Fidelity Digital Assets researcher Zack Wainwright in a report released on Monday.
The report identified two cohorts that defined the threshold of illiquid supply. These were entities with Bitcoin that last moved seven or more years ago, and public companies holding at least 1,000 BTC.
“We estimate that this combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 — or over 28% of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.”
Illiquid Supply Growing
Public companies currently hold more than 830,000 BTC, or 4% of the circulating supply, with 97% concentrated among companies holding more than 1,000 units. That number could be even higher, as BitcoinTreasuries reports that over 1.3 million BTC is held by public and private companies.
When combining the supply of long-term holders with public company holdings, one can see an accelerating trend of holding Bitcoin versus trading or transacting, the researcher noted. He added that the rise in BTC adoption among public company treasuries has driven an uptick in illiquid supply since Q3 2024.
New research piece from analyst Zack Wainwright where he digs deeper on bitcoin’s increasingly illiquid supply.
One interesting aspect is the analysis of what public company accumulation could do to supply in the future.
Check it out here for free: https://t.co/8eFwAYo0Yg
— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) September 15, 2025
The report predicted that nearly 42% of the current circulating supply, or over 8.3 million BTC, will be considered illiquid by 2032. The researcher concluded that over time, the scarcity of Bitcoin may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold the asset long term.
“If nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin continues to evolve, the growth of the illiquid supply could be even more dramatic.”
Although the report did not mention it, the same is likely to be happening with Ethereum, as digital asset treasuries have scooped up more than 4% of the entire supply in just a few months. Since Ether ETFs launched last year, they have hoovered up more than 5.5% of the total supply.
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin has been in the red over the past day, falling back from a Monday high of $116,700 to just over $115,000 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session.
The asset has been consolidating for almost a week and remains 7.2% down from its all-time high, so there has yet to be a major correction that was largely expected this month.
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